Hello Team - A client and I were putting together numbers for a payoff matrix and had an alternative way to look at things. For them, the goal is to justify cost savings vs identify profit drivers from a use case.
True Positive (benefit): This is the benefit from an order that is correctly predicted as canceled. The benefit is no/limited inventory costs. For example, if the item costs $100 to store typically, but due to cancellation - no additional cost (we put a 0 here). Benefit can come from additional revenue generated through proactive reach out
True Negative (benefit): This is the benefit from an order that is correctly predicted as not canceled. The additional benefit / costs are 0 because a customer simply does not cancel this item and continues with shipment ($1000 profit on avg or -100 inventory cost per order)
False Positive (cost): This is the cost associated with classifying an order as canceled when it did not cancel. What costs are incurred - Lost opportunity or business since the order is not fulfilled or delayed (-200)
False Negative (cost): This is the cost associated with classifying an order as not canceled, when it will actually cancel. We have to incur a cost here for inventory management -$100